West Africa Import Watch: Dairy, Canned Fish, Tomato Paste and Cooking Oil in 2026

West Africa's appetite for imported food staples — milk powder, evaporated milk, canned fish, tomato paste and cooking oil — continues to grow, underpinned by rapid urbanisation, expanding food-processing sectors and a persistent deficit in locally produced alternatives. Yet the operating environment for importers and distributors is more complex than demand headlines suggest. Tariff structures, currency exposure and a significant geopolitical shift in the Sahel are combining to create a more layered cost picture that every supply-chain decision-maker should understand before the second half of 2026.

Dairy Demand Remains Structurally Import-Dependent

Africa's white milk powder market is estimated at 1.2–1.6 million metric tonnes of consumption in 2026, with the dry whole milk powder segment alone valued at USD 1.8–2.4 billion at landed import prices. West Africa — led by Nigeria, Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire — is an increasingly active demand zone within that total, driven by urban population growth and rising disposable incomes among a growing middle class. Local raw-milk production cannot close the gap, making sustained import flows a structural reality rather than a cyclical one.

Evaporated and filled milk formats are also gaining traction. The global evaporated filled milk market is projected to grow from USD 32 million in 2025 to over USD 90 million by 2035, a compound annual growth rate of 10.9%. Canned formats hold the largest segment share at 44.6%, a reflection of the extended shelf life that tropical markets demand. The B2B food-processing segment — desserts, bakery and confectionery manufacturers — accounts for the majority of end-use, with a projected 52.4% share, meaning industrial buyers and co-packers are as important a route-to-market as retail distributors.

Tariffs and Landed Costs: Know the True Numbers

The ECOWAS Common External Tariff (CET) applies a five-band structure across member states including Ghana and Nigeria. Processed foods — canned fish, tomato paste, cooking oil and packaged dairy — typically fall into the 20–35% duty band as consumer or locally sensitive goods. Both Ghana and Nigeria assess import duty on the CIF value, with VAT and other charges then calculated on the CIF-plus-duty figure. This compounding effect meaningfully inflates landed costs, particularly for shipments originating outside ECOWAS such as those from the UAE.

Nigeria's situation carries an additional layer of complexity. Since adopting the ECOWAS CET in 2015 and updating its tariff nomenclature in April 2022, Nigeria has maintained supplemental levies on top of the standard bands. More than 80 tariff lines carry effective duties of 50% or more, with approximately 35 lines exceeding even the 70% ceiling set by the ECOWAS framework itself. Importers pricing Nigerian landed costs should build these supplemental charges into their models from the outset.

UAE-origin goods receive no preferential treatment under the West Africa–EU Economic Partnership Agreement and are subject to full CET rates across all product categories.

The Sahel Shift and Currency Volatility

A significant structural change emerged in January 2025 when Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso — now grouped as the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) — announced withdrawal from ECOWAS. An immediate 0.5% import levy was imposed on goods from ECOWAS member states to fund AES activities. For exporters or distributors routing product into the Sahel hinterland, this is a new and ongoing cost line. Separation terms are still being negotiated, and the three countries temporarily retain access to certain ECOWAS privileges, but the direction of travel warrants close monitoring.

Currency risk remains the most acute operational pressure in the region's two largest import markets. The Nigerian naira depreciated by over 40% in H1 2024 alone, and the African Development Bank projects at least a further 6% depreciation through 2025–2026. Nigeria's food import costs rose by 34% in the twelve months to April 2024, and the Central Bank released USD 2.13 billion in forex allocations for food imports in 2023 — underscoring both demand and the forex constraints that frame it.

Ghana presents a more encouraging picture. Following more than four years of double-digit inflation, the cedi stabilised sufficiently to bring inflation down to 3.8% year-on-year in January 2026 — a 13-consecutive-month disinflation streak. Ghana's inflation is still projected to average around 9.7% for 2026, but the trajectory is clearly improving. By contrast, CFA franc zone markets such as Senegal, Côte d'Ivoire and Benin offer comparatively more predictable import economics given the franc's peg to the euro.

Takeaway for Importers and Distributors

The underlying demand for dairy, canned fish, tomato paste and cooking oil across West Africa is real and growing. The variables that determine whether that demand translates into profitable trade are structural: tariff band classification, supplemental levy exposure in Nigeria, the compounding effect of CIF-based duty assessment, naira and cedi currency risk, and the evolving AES levy for Sahel-bound logistics. Distributors who build these factors explicitly into their landed-cost models — and who maintain flexible sourcing and routing arrangements — will be better positioned to navigate the market as these dynamics continue to develop through the remainder of 2026.