Grains & Pulses Outlook H2 2026: What Food Distributors in the Gulf and West Africa Need to Know

The global grains and pulses landscape entering the second half of 2026 is one of contrasts. Rice supply remains near record levels, wheat is transitioning from surplus to tightening, and pulses are quietly rebounding after a softer 2025. For food distributors and importers operating between the Gulf and West Africa, understanding these diverging dynamics is essential for sound procurement planning and margin management.

Rice: Abundant Supply, But Sourcing Origin Matters

Global rice production for 2025/26 is projected at approximately 541 million metric tons — near a record high — and demand is slightly lower at around 538.6 million MT, marking the third consecutive year of global surplus. That structural oversupply keeps broad price pressure contained, but the picture is not uniform across origins.

India remains the dominant force, with USDA projecting its 2026/27 exports at 25.0 million MT, dwarfing Vietnam (8.0 MMT), Thailand (7.5 MMT), and Pakistan (5.0 MMT). Indian-origin rice continues to cap price gains globally. However, Thailand, Vietnam, and Pakistan each saw firmer export pricing in H1 2026 due to tighter local supply conditions. For buyers blending origins in their sourcing mix, this divergence has real landed-cost implications.

Nigeria stands out as one of the key demand growth drivers in this market. As one of the world's major rice-consuming nations, West African import appetite — particularly from Nigeria — continues to underpin global trade volumes. Distributors serving that corridor should be planning for sustained volumes, even as they monitor currency and import-financing conditions on the ground.

One rising risk for UAE-based importers is freight and insurance costs. The Iran conflict and disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz elevated logistics costs for food imports into the Gulf during H1 2026. This is a landed-cost variable that does not appear in headline FOB prices but can materially affect margins.

Wheat: From Surplus to Tightening — Prices Moving Higher

The wheat market is undergoing a clearer directional shift. The 2025/26 season was characterised by abundant supply and relatively low international prices, supported by record-large crops from Argentina, Australia, and the EU. That environment is changing.

For 2026/27, global wheat supplies are projected lower at around 1,099 million MT according to USDA's July 2026 WASDE, with U.S. ending stocks down approximately 22% year-on-year. The projected U.S. season-average farm price for 2026/27 is around $6.00–$6.50 per bushel — compared to approximately $4.40 per bushel in the prior year — a significant upward move driven by a lower stocks-to-use ratio.

The picture is not uniformly bearish on supply: Russia, Turkey, and Ukraine are expected to contribute higher output in 2026/27, and India's wheat area and yield are forecast at record levels, supported by higher support prices, improved varieties, and expanded irrigation. But these positives are offset by lower Australian and Pakistani production, and a general tightening of the global balance sheet.

For distributors of flour-based products or buyers sourcing wheat for milling and food manufacturing, the directional message is clear: the low-price environment of 2025/26 is not a baseline for forward planning in 2026/27.

Pulses: Modest Recovery, Prices Still Accessible

The global pulses market — covering lentils, dry beans, and chickpeas — experienced a trade pullback in 2025, largely due to weaker dry pea and lentil flows. The International Grains Council expects a modest rebound in 2026, driven by stronger Asian demand and a potential recovery in Chinese yellow pea imports.

Dry beans are projected to hold a 38.7% share of the global pulses market in 2026. Lentils remain commercially attractive, with wholesale prices as of early 2026 ranging from approximately $0.69/kg for Indian-origin to $2.96/kg for Iranian-origin product — reflecting wide quality and origin differentials. Canada and Australia remain the dominant export origins, with Turkey and Black Sea suppliers also active.

The broader pulse market appears to be transitioning from price stability toward moderate but sustained price growth. Average export prices in 2024 stood at $752 per MT, with import prices at $855 per MT — benchmarks that buyers can use as reference points as 2026 trade resumes its upward trajectory.

Takeaway for Distributors and Importers

The H2 2026 environment calls for active rather than passive procurement. Rice offers volume and relative price stability for West African buyers, but origin selection and freight cost management are increasingly important. Wheat buyers should not anchor expectations to last year's low prices — the market is repricing, and forward planning accordingly will be critical. In pulses, the window of accessible pricing may be narrowing as trade volumes recover and the market transitions toward moderate growth. Across all three categories, geopolitical freight risk in the Gulf remains a variable that deserves a dedicated line in any landed-cost model.