Red Sea Disruption in 2026: What Food and Dairy Importers in West Africa and the UAE Need to Know

The Red Sea shipping crisis that erupted in late 2023 has not quietly resolved itself. While headline freight rates have retreated from their most extreme peaks, the landscape facing importers, distributors and food-sector buyers in 2026 is one of persistently elevated costs, unpredictable transit times, and a Suez Canal that remains far from fully operational. For businesses trading in dairy products, grains, canned goods and cooking oil — categories where shelf life, seasonal demand and inventory precision matter — understanding the current state of play is essential.

From Crisis Peak to a New, Unsettled Normal

Between November 2023 and March 2024, Houthi attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden forced a dramatic rerouting of global container traffic. Global freight rates surged by around 130% over that period, and major carriers including Maersk imposed transit disruption surcharges of USD 200–450 per container on Far East Asia cargo, alongside peak-season surcharges that reached as high as USD 2,000 per container. War-risk insurance surcharges peaked at USD 200–400 per TEU.

The last confirmed Houthi vessel attack — on the Minervagracht — occurred on 29 September 2025, after which the group declared a suspension of maritime operations. Some carriers began cautiously testing the Suez route: Maersk sent trial vessels through in late 2025 and announced a partial service resumption in January 2026. By February 2026, a handful of carriers were restarting Red Sea sailings.

But recovery has been slow and fragile. Suez Canal traffic in early 2026 remained roughly 60% below the volumes recorded in the same week of 2023, before diversions began. The Houthis subsequently vowed to resume attacks on Israeli-linked vessels, keeping route uncertainty firmly in place. The most accurate characterisation, from analysts covering the region in April 2026, is that the situation has moved from acute crisis to a