Grains & Pulses Outlook H2 2026: What Rice, Wheat and Pulse Trends Mean for African and Gulf Buyers

The FAO Food Price Index climbed to 131.1 points in July 2026 — its highest reading since January 2023 — signalling that the relative calm of the previous quarter may be giving way to renewed pressure. For food distributors and importers operating across West Africa and the UAE, the picture is nuanced: rice offers relief, wheat demands caution, and pulses are flashing an early warning on supply.

Rice: Abundant Supply, Competitive Pricing

Global rice production for the 2025/26 campaign is projected at near-record levels of approximately 541 million metric tonnes. Large exportable surpluses — led by India, which alone is forecast to ship a record 25.0 million MT in 2026/27 — are keeping international prices broadly depressed. Vietnam, Thailand and Pakistan remain active exporters, though their pricing has firmed somewhat on tighter domestic conditions, while India's ample availability continues to act as a moderating force across the market.

For buyers supplying price-sensitive consumers in West Africa, where rice is a dietary staple and import bills have climbed sharply over the past three years, this is meaningful relief. The FAO All Rice Price Index held broadly steady in July 2026, and absent a major production shock in Asia, the consensus points to continued softness through the remainder of 2026. Distributors with the capacity to forward-contract or take slightly longer positions may find this an advantageous window.

Wheat: Volatile Beneath a Broadly Soft Surface

Wheat is more complex. Global trade is forecast to rebound in 2025/26, underpinned by record or near-record crops from Argentina (up 8.6 million MT year-on-year), Australia (up 5.7 million MT) and the EU. Through June 2026, international wheat prices were generally declining as Northern Hemisphere harvests added to already-ample global supplies and Black Sea exporters competed aggressively on price.

Then came July. The FAO reported wheat prices rising 5.8% month-on-month as concerns over Black Sea export disruptions resurfaced — a sharp reminder of how quickly this market can turn. Compounding the longer-term picture, the U.S. winter wheat crop for 2026/27 is forecast down 25% from last year, with the projected U.S. season-average farm price rising to $6.50 per bushel, up $1.50 from 2025/26.

For importers sourcing wheat flour or wheat-based inputs for Gulf and African markets, the practical read is this: the global supply base remains relatively broad, but Black Sea routing risk is a live variable. Diversifying sourcing across Southern Hemisphere suppliers and monitoring freight corridors closely is prudent risk management.

Pulses: Early Signals of a Tighter Market Ahead

Pulses — lentils, dry beans, chickpeas, faba beans — present the most pressing near-term concern for buyers. USDA acreage data published in late June 2026 shows that U.S. plantings are down sharply across the board for 2026: lentils are planted on roughly 30% less acreage than in 2025, chickpeas are down around 10%, and dry edible beans and peas are also significantly reduced. These cuts will translate into lower U.S. harvest volumes entering the market in late 2026 and early 2027.

At the same time, Gulf shipping disruptions are creating freight uncertainty on key export routes. Australian faba bean production has reached a record 1.02 million MT — well above the previous record — but trade sources note that faba beans are among the most exposed commodities to freight disruption on routes into the Middle East, including Jebel Ali. Mung bean flows to East Africa are also reported to be affected.

India remains a critical swing supplier for lentils and chickpeas to both Gulf and African markets. Traders are monitoring the progress of India's kharif pulse crop closely, particularly given delayed rains, and watching for potential tariff adjustments that could shift export availability at short notice.

Takeaway for Distributors and Importers

The overall picture for H2 2026 calls for differentiated strategies by commodity. Rice buyers can approach the market with confidence — supply is ample and pricing is favourable. Wheat buyers should maintain flexibility and watch Black Sea developments as a key price trigger. On pulses, the signals are clear enough to act on: reduced U.S. planting, Gulf freight disruption and India crop uncertainty all point to upside price risk in the coming months. Where forward-buying or early contracting is operationally feasible, it deserves serious consideration. Staying close to freight developments on Gulf and East African routes will be equally important as sourcing strategy.