Ocean Freight in Focus: What Shipping Rate Pressures Mean for Food Importers in West Africa and the Gulf

The container shipping market that briefly softened in early 2026 has tightened sharply again. The Drewry World Container Index stood at $2,123 per 40-foot container as recently as March 2026 — a level that gave importers some breathing room after the chaos of 2024. By 3 September 2026, that same benchmark had climbed to $4,465 per 40-foot container, roughly double in six months. For buyers and distributors moving food commodities — dairy ingredients, canned goods, edible oils, pulses — into West Africa and the Gulf, this is not background noise. It is a direct input cost.

The Red Sea Disruption: Still the Dominant Structural Factor

The rerouting of vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, which became the industry norm in early 2024, has never fully unwound. Cape routing adds approximately 3,500 nautical miles per round trip on the Asia–Europe corridor and extends transit times by 10 to 14 days. That longer sailing time translates directly into higher bunker consumption, additional crew costs, and tighter vessel availability — all of which push base rates upward.

There are encouraging signs on the horizon. Maersk has announced that full loop transits via the Suez Canal will return for its MECL1 service, and long-term contract rates from the Far East to the Mediterranean fell around 25% between late 2025 and January 2026, settling near $2,308 per FEU. North Europe rates also eased by roughly 10%. However, spot market benchmarks have since climbed back sharply, suggesting that a durable, large-scale return to Suez routing has not yet materialised. Importers should treat any Suez normalisation as a developing story rather than a resolved one.

Fuel Costs and Regulatory Surcharges Are Adding a Structural Floor

Beyond routing, two cost pressures are becoming permanent features of the rate environment rather than temporary surcharges.

First, disruptions to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz — a chokepoint handling roughly 20% of global oil supply — have tightened bunker fuel availability and elevated prices. Maersk moved to introduce an emergency bunker surcharge of $200 per TEU on head-haul routes, citing the need to bypass the standard 30-day notice period. Carriers and analysts expect bunker costs to remain elevated for months.

Second, the IMO 2026 Carbon Intensity Indicator regulations are now in force. Vessels that underperform on emissions ratings face mandatory speed reductions or must invest in alternative fuels. This is translating into green surcharges of approximately $150 to $400 per container depending on route — a structural cost floor that will not disappear when geopolitical conditions ease.

The practical effect is a pile-up of surcharges: Emergency Operating Cost Recovery fees, Red Sea diversion charges, Peak Season Surcharges, and Bunker Adjustment Factors are all active simultaneously. CMA CGM and ONE have announced Peak Season Surcharges of $500 to $600 per 20-foot container, citing the same combination of factors.

West Africa Routes: Congestion Adds a Local Premium

For importers specifically targeting West Africa, route-level conditions add further complexity. Sea freight for a 20-foot container to Africa currently ranges broadly from $1,500 to $6,000 depending on origin and destination port. Nigerian routes carry a premium of approximately 10% over comparable southern African destinations, driven by persistent port congestion at Lagos and Apapa. While the CMA CGM Peak Season Surcharges cited above apply to East African ports — $750 per TEU to Mombasa, $900 to $1,100 per TEU to Zanzibar — they are a useful directional indicator for the West Africa cost trajectory.

Capacity management is also keeping supply tight. Between early August and early September 2026, carriers blanked 58 sailings out of 723 planned across major East–West trades. Selective blank sailings are a deliberate lever carriers use to support rate levels when peak-season demand begins to moderate.

Takeaway for Buyers and Distributors

The freight cost environment as of September 2026 is characterised by elevated base rates, stacked surcharges, and at least two structural cost drivers — IMO regulations and Hormuz-related fuel pricing — that are unlikely to resolve quickly. Any partial return to Suez routing may ease rates on some lanes, but West Africa importers will continue to absorb a local congestion premium on top of global benchmarks. Building freight cost volatility into procurement planning, maintaining flexible booking windows, and monitoring carrier surcharge announcements closely are prudent disciplines for any business moving food products through these corridors right now.