Grains & Pulses Outlook H2 2026: What Ample Supplies and Shifting Trade Flows Mean for Gulf and West African Importers

Global grain and pulse markets in the second half of 2026 are broadly supply-long, offering importers and distributors in the Gulf and West Africa a favourable procurement window. Yet the headline picture conceals some meaningful divergences by commodity and origin — divergences that will shape margins and sourcing strategy for food distributors over the coming months.

Wheat: Ample Global Supply, but Watch the Origins

The USDA's September 2026 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) puts global wheat supplies for 2026/27 at 1,103.0 million tonnes, up 3.5 million tonnes from the prior projection, driven by stronger production across several major exporting countries and rising ending stocks. After a brief 4.3% price spike in March 2026 — attributed to tightening supply conditions at the time — international wheat prices have since eased as Northern Hemisphere harvests came in and Black Sea exporters maintained aggressive competition.

For Gulf and African buyers, the practical implication is straightforward: sourcing conditions are comfortable and competitive. However, one supply-side footnote deserves attention. The first survey-based forecast for 2026/27 US winter wheat production is down approximately 25% year-on-year to 1,048 million bushels, largely on sharply reduced Hard Red Winter output, with US exports projected at 775 million bushels — down 135 million from the revised prior season. For buyers who specify US-origin wheat for particular product grades, this tightening matters. For those who can flex on origin, Black Sea and other suppliers are well-positioned to fill the gap. India's re-entry into the export market adds another option, though its cargoes remain less price-competitive than Black Sea alternatives at present.

Rice: A Clear Buyers' Market — With a Competitive Twist

Rice is where the supply story is most striking. Global production for the 2025/26 campaign is projected at around 541 million metric tonnes, near record levels. India — now the world's largest rice producer — is forecast at 152 million tonnes, its tenth consecutive record year, with stocks rising to an all-time high. US all-rice prices have fallen sharply, with the USDA ERS 2025/26 season-average price forecast at $11.80 per hundredweight, down from $14.80 the previous season.

For importers, this is an opportune moment to secure forward contracts at favourable levels. The caution, particularly for West Africa-focused distributors, is the growing competitive pressure from China. Chinese rice exports have been revised upward for two consecutive months, driven by expanding demand for competitively priced medium-grain varieties in markets including Côte d'Ivoire, Guinea-Bissau, and Libya. Distributors operating in these markets should expect tighter margins unless they can differentiate on grade, reliability, or service — or position on price by tapping the same deep Asian supply pool.

Pulses: Softening Prices, Concentrated Supply Chain

Lentil and bean markets present a more nuanced picture. Transaction prices vary considerably by origin — reported unit prices in early 2026 ranged from $1.31/kg (Mexico) to $2.88/kg (South Africa) — and export supply remains heavily concentrated in Canada and Australia, with Turkey and Central Asian origins playing a secondary but growing role. Canada alone accounts for 39% of South Africa's lentil import value, illustrating how dependent key African markets are on a single origin.

On the chickpea side, a sizeable Indian harvest is anticipated for 2026/27, but global output is expected to contract slightly as Australian production falls. World import demand is pegged at 3.3 million tonnes, broadly stable year-on-year. With carry-in stocks high and consumption steady, prices are softening — but the concentration of supply in two weather-sensitive producing nations (Canada and Australia) means that a single adverse growing season can reverse that trajectory quickly. Climate risk is the key variable flagged across industry sources for pulse market volatility going into 2027.

Key Takeaways for Distributors and Importers

The broad message for H2 2026 is that global grain and pulse markets favour buyers. Large wheat and rice surpluses, softening pulse prices, and competitive Black Sea and Asian export availability combine to offer an attractive forward-contracting environment — particularly for USD-denominated buyers in the Gulf and Africa. Three priorities stand out for food distributors and importers:

• Act on the rice and wheat window. Global surpluses make H2 2026 a sound period to lock in forward volumes at current levels, ahead of any potential supply disruptions in 2027.
• Re-examine West Africa rice positioning. Chinese medium-grain is gaining shelf space aggressively. Distributors need a clear answer on where they compete — on price, on quality, or on specific grade relationships.
• Diversify pulse sourcing. Heavy reliance on Canada and Australia for lentils and beans is a structural vulnerability. Developing relationships with Turkish or Central Asian suppliers now, before a supply shock forces the issue, is prudent risk management.

Monitoring Indian export policy and Black Sea geopolitical developments remains essential, as these two factors represent the primary swing variables for grain prices across Gulf and African import markets.